The cost of claims from the Chilean earthquake and European storm Xynthia will have a heavy impact on insurance company earnings this year, ending a five-year phase of relative calm that kept losses in check.
Swiss Reinsurance Co (RUNK.VX) and Munich Re (MUV2.XE), the world's largest reinsurers by premiums that provide cover to insurance companies for rare but expensive natural and man-made disasters, said Wednesday that the two events will cost them roughly $600 million and EUR600 million, respectively, according to preliminary estimates. Both companies said the charge would hit first-quarter earnings.
Europe's largest insurer by premiums, Allianz SE (ALV.XE), said storm Xynthia alone could cost it up to EUR300 million, while the U.K.'s RSA Insurance Group PLC (RSA.LN) expects claims of about GBP30 million from the Chile earthquake. U.S. reinsurer PartnerRe Ltd. (PRE) forecasts losses of up to $320 million from both events.
Other insurers are likely to be affected too. Risk modeling agencies Eqecat and Air Worldwide, which calculate claims based on computer models, expect the Chile earthquake that killed around 800 people to cost the insurance sector up to $8 billion. Munich Re and Swiss Re estimate industrywide claims will be $4 billion to $7 billion.
Munich Re, said the $4 billion-$7 billion estimate for insured market loss is “according to Munich Re's own estimates.” It said it sent several loss experts to Santiago de Chile to ensure swift and effective claims settlement. It said the Chile quake magnitude of 8.8 “made it the fifth strongest earthquake ever recorded.”
Its Swiss rival said that the figure it uses was an estimate based on historical loss data, early claims filing, expert observation and its own loss modeling.
Winter storm Xynthia, which ravaged Europe in February and killed more than 60 people, could add another $4 billion to the sector's bill, according to forecasts from PartnerRe. Rating agency Moody's warned that insurers such as Groupama and Covea that are active in France, where storm damage was particularly heavy, could see earnings slide.
Analysts say claims are likely to hit the first quarter earnings of most players and could prompt some to redouble cost-cutting efforts. “The above-average catastrophe quarter consequently points to rather weak technical first quarter results,” said Bank Sarasin analyst Daniel Bischof.
In Swiss Re's case, the estimated losses could shave off about 15% of the company's estimated full-year 2010 profit, said Bank Vontobel analyst Stefan Schuermann.
More – $$ Wall Street Journal – March 10, 2010